Pssst…! Wanna know a secret?


How about the secret of the Gamblers Fallacy?

When you are playing craps and a random shooter holds the dice, you might come across an extraordinary occurrence. This random shooter may, for example, throw four passes in a row. There are some bettors who may then assume that the don’t pass is now “due,’ and will begin betting the dark side.

In physics this process is called “Maturity of Chances,” and can occur for example, if someone flips a coin 1,000 times. According to the law of averages, it is assumed that slots approximately 500 tosses will be heads and approximately 500 tosses will be tails.

If however, after 900 tosses, it may be discovered that there are 600 heads and only 300 tails. Some people at that time might say that tails are now “due,” so the remaining 100 tosses will be mostly tails.

If this was true it would mean that the coin has some sort of innate intelligence and will determine its future behavior by what has happened in the past. Given a very, very long run of coins (or dice) it is probable that the heads and tails (or the pass and don’t pass) will sort itself out. But this will be done by chance and circumstance, not by the determinate behavior of the coins or the dice.

If there is no way to deduce the outcome of a random roll of the dice, then why play craps at all? The gambler’s fallacy applies to randomness, and is correct in stating that previous rolls of the dice have no effect on future rolls. However, there is there a method in use today to help us predict the outcome of a non-random roll of the dice on a consistent basis.

Wanna know the secret that craps pros use to overcome the Gamblers Fallacy?